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Project Connect: Andrew Monaghan- “Living in Different Worlds?” Interpreting Russia’s Cognitive Maps, Strategy and Scenario Planning Through 2030: Difference between revisions

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'''Date:''' June 11th, 2025 at 15:00 CET / 09:00 EDT   
'''Date:''' February 12th, 2025 at 15:00 CET / 14:00 GMT / 09:00 EDT   
'''Platform:''' Cisco Webex Events   
'''Platform:''' Cisco Webex Events   


=== Link to Video Recording ===   
=== Link to Video Recording ===   
[https://eucom.webex.com/eucom/lsr.php?RCID=9c3d8f4e5c9a4b2a8f3e7c9d8f4e5c9a Link to Video Recording]   
[https://eucom.webex.com/eucom/ldr.php?RCID=545d267c8e1b2b647716b43ecd6c966c Link to Video Recording]   
'''Recording Password:''' pSF5Ta4G  
'''Recording Password:''' YcSM3E2w  


=== Details ===   
=== Details ===   
Michael Kofman, Eugene Rumer, and Dara Massicot will present their latest research and discuss the main developments concerning Russian future force design, global posture, and the Russian military as a learning organization.   
Dr. Andrew Monaghan, Mr. George Ellis, Dr. Charles Bartles, and Dr. Nicholas Danforth will explore the idea of cognitive mapping and how it is useful for interpreting Russian perspectives and therefore for Moscow's strategic planning and activity.   


==== Presentation Areas ==== 
This panel discussion explores how Moscow's views of strategic geography underpin Russian policy. The presentations will introduce the value of interpreting "cognitive maps" as they offer insight into the Russian leadership's assumptions about international affairs and therefore decision making and strategy. In this way, it is an essential ingredient in interpreting Russian strategic culture.  
* '''Eugene Rumer:''' The transformed map of Russia’s new global posture, the durability of the drivers underlying it, and implications for U.S. interests - Starts at minute 0 
* '''Dara Massicot:''' How lessons are identified and implemented within the Russian military and its supporting defense ecosystem, and how that learning will shape the Russian military - Starts at minute 22 
* '''Michael Kofman:''' Russian force design following the Russia-Ukraine war - Starts at minute 41 
* '''Questions and Answers:''' Starts at minute 104  


=== Biography ===   
=== Biography ===   


==== Michael Kofman ====   
==== Andrew Monaghan ====   
[[File:Photo_Michael_Kofman.jpg|thumb|200px|Michael Kofman]]   
[[File:Photo_Andrew_Monaghan.jpg|thumb|200px|Andrew Monaghan]]   
'''Title:''' Senior Fellow  
'''Title:''' Director  
'''Affiliation:''' Carnegie Endowment for International Peace  
'''Affiliation:''' AM Leadmark Research Ltd; Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)  


Michael Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military, Ukrainian armed forces, and Eurasian security issues. Prior to joining Carnegie in 2023, he served as director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, where he led a team conducting research on the capabilities, strategy, and military thought of the Russian Armed Forces. Widely recognized as one of the leading authorities on the Russian military, and the Russo-Ukrainian war, Kofman has led foundational work in the field, and is routinely cited in major publications.   
Dr. Andrew Monaghan is Director of AM Leadmark Research Ltd, a London-based research consultancy. He is also a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, a Global Fellow at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C., and a Non-Resident Associate Fellow of the NATO Defence College in Rome. Previously, he has been a George F. Kennan Fellow in the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C., and employed by Pembroke College, Oxford, Chatham House, and NATO.   


==== Eugene Rumer ====   
==== George Ellis ====   
[[File:Photo_Eugene_Rumer.jpg|thumb|200px|Eugene Rumer]]   
[[File:Photo_George_Ellis.jpg|thumb|200px|George Ellis]]   
'''Title:''' Director and Senior Fellow  
'''Title:''' Advisor  
'''Affiliation:''' Carnegie Endowment for International Peace  
'''Affiliation:''' Former Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ)  


Eugene Rumer is a senior fellow and the director of Carnegie's Russia and Eurasia Program. Prior to joining Carnegie, Rumer was the national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2010 to 2014. Earlier, he held research appointments at the National Defense University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the RAND Corporation, and served at the State Department and on the National Security Council staff.   
George Ellis graduated from Magdalene College, Cambridge in 1980 with a degree in Land Economy and joined the UK's Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) where he spent a 35 year civilian career. Starting as an intelligence analyst he went on to fill a wide range of operational, policy and senior leadership positions. The first 10 years of his career were focused on the armed forces of the Soviet Union. Throughout his career, he worked closely with MOD and the wider military. He also served at the British Embassy Washington as a liaison officer with the US Department of Defense.   


==== Dara Massicot ====   
==== Charles Bartles ====   
[[File:Photo_Dara_Massicot.jpg|thumb|200px|Dara Massicot]]   
[[File:Photo_Charles_Bartles.jpg|thumb|200px|Charles Bartles]]   
'''Title:''' Senior Fellow  
'''Title:''' Analyst and Russian Linguist  
'''Affiliation:''' Carnegie Endowment for International Peace  
'''Affiliation:''' Foreign Military Studies Office; Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)  


Dara Massicot is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her work focuses on defense and security issues in Russia and Eurasia. Prior to joining Carnegie, Massicot was a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and senior analyst for Russian military capabilities at the Department of Defense. She has published extensively on Russian military capabilities, modernization efforts, and strategy, and is a preeminent expert on the Russo-Ukrainian War. She holds an M.A. in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College, and B.A.s in Russian Language and Literature and Peace, War, and Defense from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.   
Dr. Charles K. Bartles is an analyst and Russian linguist at the Foreign Military Studies Office at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. His specific research areas include Russian and Central Asian military force structure, modernization, tactics, officer and enlisted professional development, and security assistance programs. Chuck is a lieutenant colonel in the United States Army Reserve that is imagery (35A1D) and space operations (FA40) qualified. He has deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq, and has served as a security assistance officer at embassies in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. 
 
==== Nicholas Danforth ==== 
[[File:Photo_Nicholas_Danforth.jpg|thumb|200px|Nicholas Danforth]] 
'''Title:''' Fellow and Editor 
'''Affiliation:''' Century International; War on the Rocks 
 
Nicholas Danforth is a fellow at Century International and an editor at War on the Rocks, where he writes the politics and cartography newsletter Mid-Afternoon Map. He has previously covered Turkey, U.S. foreign policy, and the Middle East for think tanks including the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Bipartisan Policy Center.   


=== Additional Resources ===   
=== Additional Resources ===   
* '''[[Main Page#Calendar|Current Calendar]]'''   
* '''[[Main Page#Calendar|Current Calendar]]'''   
* '''[[RSI Research|All RSI Research]]'''
* '''[[RSI Research|All RSI Research]]'''

Latest revision as of 13:59, 11 August 2025

Date: February 12th, 2025 at 15:00 CET / 14:00 GMT / 09:00 EDT Platform: Cisco Webex Events

Link to Video Recording Recording Password: YcSM3E2w

Details

Dr. Andrew Monaghan, Mr. George Ellis, Dr. Charles Bartles, and Dr. Nicholas Danforth will explore the idea of cognitive mapping and how it is useful for interpreting Russian perspectives and therefore for Moscow's strategic planning and activity.

This panel discussion explores how Moscow's views of strategic geography underpin Russian policy. The presentations will introduce the value of interpreting "cognitive maps" as they offer insight into the Russian leadership's assumptions about international affairs and therefore decision making and strategy. In this way, it is an essential ingredient in interpreting Russian strategic culture.

Biography

Andrew Monaghan

File:Photo Andrew Monaghan.jpg
Andrew Monaghan

Title: Director Affiliation: AM Leadmark Research Ltd; Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Dr. Andrew Monaghan is Director of AM Leadmark Research Ltd, a London-based research consultancy. He is also a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, a Global Fellow at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C., and a Non-Resident Associate Fellow of the NATO Defence College in Rome. Previously, he has been a George F. Kennan Fellow in the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C., and employed by Pembroke College, Oxford, Chatham House, and NATO.

George Ellis

File:Photo George Ellis.jpg
George Ellis

Title: Advisor Affiliation: Former Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ)

George Ellis graduated from Magdalene College, Cambridge in 1980 with a degree in Land Economy and joined the UK's Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) where he spent a 35 year civilian career. Starting as an intelligence analyst he went on to fill a wide range of operational, policy and senior leadership positions. The first 10 years of his career were focused on the armed forces of the Soviet Union. Throughout his career, he worked closely with MOD and the wider military. He also served at the British Embassy Washington as a liaison officer with the US Department of Defense.

Charles Bartles

File:Photo Charles Bartles.jpg
Charles Bartles

Title: Analyst and Russian Linguist Affiliation: Foreign Military Studies Office; Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Dr. Charles K. Bartles is an analyst and Russian linguist at the Foreign Military Studies Office at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. His specific research areas include Russian and Central Asian military force structure, modernization, tactics, officer and enlisted professional development, and security assistance programs. Chuck is a lieutenant colonel in the United States Army Reserve that is imagery (35A1D) and space operations (FA40) qualified. He has deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq, and has served as a security assistance officer at embassies in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.

Nicholas Danforth

File:Photo Nicholas Danforth.jpg
Nicholas Danforth

Title: Fellow and Editor Affiliation: Century International; War on the Rocks

Nicholas Danforth is a fellow at Century International and an editor at War on the Rocks, where he writes the politics and cartography newsletter Mid-Afternoon Map. He has previously covered Turkey, U.S. foreign policy, and the Middle East for think tanks including the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Additional Resources