Project Connect: Andrew Monaghan- “Living in Different Worlds?” Interpreting Russia’s Cognitive Maps, Strategy and Scenario Planning Through 2030: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 13:39, 11 August 2025

Date: June 11th, 2025 at 15:00 CET / 09:00 EDT Platform: Cisco Webex Events Co-hosted by: Russia Strategic Initiative and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Link to Video Recording

[Recording Link] Recording Password: pSF5Ta4G

Connection Instructions

Using the registration link, register for the event ahead of time. Webex will send a message with a link 15 minutes before the event. When joining, especially for government attendees, click "Join by browser" which is under the "Join Now" button in blue. The blue button will open the desktop application, which isn't possible on government computers.

Format

The panelists presented for 20 minutes each followed by 20 minutes of Q&A.

Agenda

1500-1522 CET / 0900-0922 EDT

Presentation on Russia's Global Posture: The More it Changes, The More it Remains the Same Eugene Rumer will discuss the transformed map of Russia's new global posture, the durability of the drivers underlying it, and implications for U.S. interests.

1522-1541 CET / 0922-0941 EDT

Presentation on The Russian Military as a Learning Organization Dara Massicot will examine how lessons are identified and implemented within the Russian military and its supporting defense ecosystem, and how that learning will shape the Russian military.

1541-1600 CET / 0941-1000 EDT

Presentation on Back To the Future: The Evolution of Russian Force Design Michael Kofman will analyze Russian force design following the Russia-Ukraine war.

1600-1644 CET / 1000-1044 EDT

Question & Answer Session

Panelists

Michael Kofman

File:Photo Michael Kofman.jpg

Michael Kofman

Title: Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program Affiliation: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michael Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military, Ukrainian armed forces, and Eurasian security issues. Prior to joining Carnegie in 2023, he served as director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, where he led a team conducting research on the capabilities, strategy, and military thought of the Russian Armed Forces. Widely recognized as one of the leading authorities on the Russian military, and the Russo-Ukrainian war, Kofman has led foundational work in the field, and is routinely cited in major publications.

Eugene Rumer

File:Photo Eugene Rumer.jpg

Eugene Rumer

Title: Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program Affiliation: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Eugene Rumer is a senior fellow and the director of Carnegie's Russia and Eurasia Program. Prior to joining Carnegie, Rumer was the national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2010 to 2014. Earlier, he held research appointments at the National Defense University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the RAND Corporation, and served at the State Department and on the National Security Council staff.

Dara Massicot

File:Photo Dara Massicot.jpg

Dara Massicot

Title: Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program Affiliation: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Dara Massicot is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her work focuses on defense and security issues in Russia and Eurasia. Prior to joining Carnegie, Massicot was a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and senior analyst for Russian military capabilities at the Department of Defense. She has published extensively on Russian military capabilities, modernization efforts, and strategy, and is a preeminent expert on the Russo-Ukrainian War. She holds an M.A. in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College, and B.A.s in Russian Language and Literature and Peace, War, and Defense from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Additional Resources

Research Paper: Russia's Global Posture: The More it Changes, The More it Remains the Same by Eugene Rumer Research Paper: The Russian Military as a Learning Organization by Dara Massicot Research Paper: Back To the Future: The Evolution of Russian Force Design by Michael Kofman Current Calendar All RSI Research

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-Project Connect: Andrew Monaghan- “Living in Different Worlds?” Interpreting Russia’s Cognitive Maps, Strategy and Scenario Planning Through 2030
+'''Date:''' June 11th, 2025 at 15:00 CET / 09:00 EDT
-February 12 at 15:00 CET/ 1400 GMT/09:00 EDT
+'''Platform:''' Cisco Webex Events
+'''Co-hosted by:''' Russia Strategic Initiative and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
-Details:
+=== Link to Video Recording ===
+[Recording Link]
-Dr. Andrew Monaghan, Mr. George Ellis, Dr. Charles Bartles, and Dr. Nicholas Danforth will explore the idea of cognitive mapping and how it is useful for interpreting Russian perspectives and therefore for Moscow’s strategic planning and activity
+'''Recording Password:''' pSF5Ta4G
+=== Connection Instructions ===
-This panel discussion explores how Moscow’s views of strategic geography underpin Russian policy. The presentations will introduce the value of interpreting “cognitive maps” as they offer insight into the Russian leadership’s assumptions about international affairs and therefore decision making and strategy. In this way, it is an essential ingredient in interpreting Russian strategic culture.
+Using the registration link, register for the event ahead of time. Webex will send a message with a link 15 minutes before the event. When joining, especially for government attendees, click "Join by browser" which is under the "Join Now" button in blue. The blue button will open the desktop application, which isn't possible on government computers.
+=== Format ===
+The panelists presented for 20 minutes each followed by 20 minutes of Q&A.
+=== Agenda ===
+==== 1500-1522 CET / 0900-0922 EDT ====
-Andrew Monaghan
+'''Presentation on Russia's Global Posture: The More it Changes, The More it Remains the Same'''
-Director AM Leadmark Research
+Eugene Rumer will discuss the transformed map of Russia's new global posture, the durability of the drivers underlying it, and implications for U.S. interests.
-Associate Fellow RUSI
+==== 1522-1541 CET / 0922-0941 EDT ====
+'''Presentation on The Russian Military as a Learning Organization'''
-Dr Andrew Monaghan is Director of AM Leadmark Research Ltd, a London-based research consultancy. He is also a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, a Global Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C., and a Non-Resident Associate Fellow of the NATO Defence College in Rome. Previously, he has been a George F. Kennan Fellow in the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C., and employed by Pembroke College, Oxford, Chatham House, and NATO.
+Dara Massicot will examine how lessons are identified and implemented within the Russian military and its supporting defense ecosystem, and how that learning will shape the Russian military.
+==== 1541-1600 CET / 0941-1000 EDT ====
+'''Presentation on Back To the Future: The Evolution of Russian Force Design'''
-George Ellis
+Michael Kofman will analyze Russian force design following the Russia-Ukraine war.
-Advisor
+==== 1600-1644 CET / 1000-1044 EDT ====
+'''Question & Answer Session'''
-George Ellis graduated from Magdalene College, Cambridge in 1980 with a degree in Land Economy and joined the UK’s Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) where he spent a 35 year civilian career. Starting as an intelligence analyst he went on to fill a wide range of operational, policy and senior leadership positions. The first 10 years of his career were focused on the armed forces of the Soviet Union. Throughout his career, he worked closely with MOD and the wider military. He also served at the British Embassy Washington as a liaison officer with the US Department of Defense.
+=== Panelists ===
+==== Michael Kofman ====
-Charles Bartles
+[[File:Photo_Michael_Kofman.jpg|thumb|200px|Michael Kofman]]
-Foreign Military Studies Office
+'''Title:''' Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
-Associate Fellow RUSI
+'''Affiliation:''' Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
+Michael Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military, Ukrainian armed forces, and Eurasian security issues. Prior to joining Carnegie in 2023, he served as director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, where he led a team conducting research on the capabilities, strategy, and military thought of the Russian Armed Forces. Widely recognized as one of the leading authorities on the Russian military, and the Russo-Ukrainian war, Kofman has led foundational work in the field, and is routinely cited in major publications.
-Dr. Charles K. Bartles is an analyst and Russian linguist at the Foreign Military Studies Office at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. His specific research areas include Russian and Central Asian military force structure, modernization, tactics, officer and enlisted professional development, and security assistance programs. Chuck is a lieutenant colonel in the United States Army Reserve that is imagery (35A1D) and space operations (FA40) qualified. He has deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq, and has served as a security assistance officer at embassies in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
+==== Eugene Rumer ====
+[[File:Photo_Eugene_Rumer.jpg|thumb|200px|Eugene Rumer]]
+'''Title:''' Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
-Nicholas Danforth
+'''Affiliation:''' Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
-War on the Rocks
+Eugene Rumer is a senior fellow and the director of Carnegie's Russia and Eurasia Program. Prior to joining Carnegie, Rumer was the national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2010 to 2014. Earlier, he held research appointments at the National Defense University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the RAND Corporation, and served at the State Department and on the National Security Council staff.
+==== Dara Massicot ====
-Nicholas Danforth is a fellow at Century International and an editor at War on the Rocks, where he writes the politics and cartography newsletter Mid-Afternoon Map. He has previously covered Turkey, U.S. foreign policy, and the Middle East for think tanks including the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Bipartisan Policy Center.
+[[File:Photo_Dara_Massicot.jpg|thumb|200px|Dara Massicot]]
+'''Title:''' Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
-https://community.apan.org/wg/rsi/project-connect/w/events/40804/project-connect-andrew-monaghan--living-in-different-worlds-interpreting-russia-s-cognitive-maps-strategy-and-scenario-planning-through-2030/#_cptype=panel&_cpcontexttype=Explicit&_cppanelid=63f2015f-0f61-49e0-ac07-598d70cdcbff&sourceContentId=43833e38-9c34-4825-9f32-b7e75cc1c1a1&sourceContentTypeId=6b577b8c-0470-4e20-9d29-b6772bf67243
+'''Affiliation:''' Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
+Dara Massicot is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her work focuses on defense and security issues in Russia and Eurasia. Prior to joining Carnegie, Massicot was a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and senior analyst for Russian military capabilities at the Department of Defense. She has published extensively on Russian military capabilities, modernization efforts, and strategy, and is a preeminent expert on the Russo-Ukrainian War. She holds an M.A. in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College, and B.A.s in Russian Language and Literature and Peace, War, and Defense from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
+=== Additional Resources ===
+'''Research Paper:''' Russia's Global Posture: The More it Changes, The More it Remains the Same by Eugene Rumer
+'''Research Paper:''' The Russian Military as a Learning Organization by Dara Massicot
+'''Research Paper:''' Back To the Future: The Evolution of Russian Force Design by Michael Kofman
+'''[[Main Page#Calendar|Current Calendar]]'''
+'''[[RSI Research|All RSI Research]]'''